In other places, including Interior Alaska, northeast Utah and southwestern Wyoming, the weather patterns are such that above-average snowfall earlier in the season indicates above-average snowfall is also likely later in the season.Ĭooler air temperatures also helped with predictability. This means their early season snow is close to their peak season snow. Some areas, such as Alaska, simply receive most of their snow before January.
There were a few different reasons for why fall snow levels predicted peak season snowpack levels. Then the team compared accumulated snow by the end of December (fall snow) to the maximum amount of snow accumulated over the entire winter-spring season (peak season snow). The researchers analyzed air temperature and accumulated precipitation from 2001 to 2022 for 873 sites. To look for trends, the team collected data from a network of snow sensors across the western U.S., including Alaska. Learn more about the SNOTEL sensor stations, which are maintained by the National Resource Conservation Service. It was really interesting to find that the amount of snow on the ground by the end of December ended up being a good predictor of peak spring snow.” But as for what’s going to happen in the next three to four months, that’s been kind of a no-go zone. And we can do short-term forecasts: what will happen less than a week from now. We’re fairly good at long-term average forecasts: what will happen 50 years from now. “The main thing water managers are asking for - aside from making it snow more, which is usually everyone’s first request - is longer lead-time forecasts,” said senior author Jessica Lundquist, UW professor of civil and environmental engineering. The researchers published these results Sept. Other states, such as California, Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona, were harder to predict - these regions either had too much variation in their weather patterns and/or got the most of their precipitation after December. This prediction works well in northern states such as Alaska, Oregon and Washington, as well as in parts of Utah, Wyoming and Colorado. The total snowpack gives scientists a better idea of how much water will be available for hydropower, irrigation and drinking later in the year.Ī team led by researchers at the University of Washington has found that in some western states, the amount of snow already on the ground by the end of December is a good predictor of how much total snow that area will get. Researchers who study water resources also want to know how much snow an area will get in a season. But if people are booking their spring skiing trips the fall before, it’s hard to know which areas will have the best snow coverage later in the season. Spring break can be a good time for ski trips - the days are longer and a little warmer. In Washington’s Cascades (shown here near Cle Elum, Washington, in November), snow on the ground in the fall increases the likelihood that additional “wintry mix” precipitation will freeze and add to the snowpack later in the season.
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